Deep Issue

1Sea level rise

A few years ago, it was predicted that there would be a global rise in sea level of 1.5 to 2.5 meters by the end of the century. Now it is expected to be up to 2.5 meters by 2021 [1]. For the second year in a row, the annual amount of flood damage in Japan was the largest ever since statistics began. Natural disasters of this scale are occurring all over the world.

Reference 1:Seven things you need to know about sea level rise caused by climate change.

Fig.1 Projected sea-level rise in major Japanese cities in 2050.

Tokyo

Fig.2 The scale of damage caused by floods in Japan has reached a record highest (according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism)

Fig.3 World's 11 cities that will be affected by sea level rise by 2100.

11 sinking cities could disappear by 2100
  1. Jakarta|Indonesia
  2. Lagos|Nigeria
  3. Houston|Texas
  4. Dhaka|Bangladesh
  5. Venice|Italy
  6. Virginia Beach|Virginia
  7. Bangkok|Thailand
  8. New Orleans|Louisiana
  9. Rotterdam|The Netherlands
  10. Alexandria|Egypt
  11. Miami, Florida

2Impact on Tokyo

As many as 6 million people across Japan could be affected by flooding and inundation if 2030 comes without reducing CO2 emissions. In Tokyo, about 835,000 people (9% of the 23 wards) will be affected by flooding and inundation due to the extreme rise in sea level caused by typhoon-related storm surges. The damage to GDP will amount to about 7.5 trillion yen [4].

Reference 4: What will happen to Japan if sea-level rise occurs?
Projected Economic Impacts of Extreme Sea Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030.
Reference 5: Projected Economic Impacts of Extreme Sea Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030.

3Natural disasters cause agricultural disasters.

In 2018 and 2019, the amount of damage caused by floods in Japan up to about 1,405 billion yen and 2,150 billion yen nationwide, marking the second consecutive year with the enormous amount of damage caused by floods other than tsunamis in a single year since statistics began, (15% of 2 trillion 1, 50 billion yen). The total for the recent 10-year period (2010-2019) is 5,410.2 billion yen[6] (average annual damage of 541 billion yen scale; moderate annual damage of 81.15 billion yen based on 15% of damage to agricultural land) and is expected to continue to increase.

Damage caused by agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in the past ten years.
Reference 6: Damage caused by agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in the past ten years.

Deep Issue as a Market

Social issues = next-generation market

Suppose we assume that the scale of disasters in the next 10 years, when climate change accelerates, will be at least 1.7 times larger than in the past 10 years. In that case, the damage scale will be 810 million usd, and if we assign a damage rate of 15% for agriculture, forestry, and floods in the past 10 years, the damage scale in the next 10 years will be an estimated 121 million usd. N-ARK aims to reduce the damage to 15% of this amount = 1.8 billion usd.

TAM:Amount of damage from natural disasters over the next 10 years, SAM:Amount of damage to agriculture, forestry over the next 10 years, SOM:N-ARK’s target for disaster reduction in 10 years

Basis of calculation:

TAM:
Damage to agriculture, forestry in 2010~2019[*1]: 476 million USD[*2]
Projected damage from agriculture, forestry in 2020~2029: 476 million USD × 1.7 times = 810 million USD [*2]
SAM:
Damage to agriculture, forestry and fisheries in 2019: 3 billion USD (15% of total 189 million USD)[*3]
809 million USD × 15% = damage to agriculture, forestry = 121 million USD
Total area of damage to agricultural land over 10 years: 1908.71km² × 1.7 times = 3243km²
SOM:
Target amount for disaster reduction: 121 million USD × 15% (target value) = 1.8 billion USD
Target area for disaster reduction: 3243km² × 15% = 486.45km²

Milestone

  • 2022

    Prototype Development
    Prototype of Green Ocean will be developed and tested in the bay or salt lake.
  • 2023

    R&D based on the prototype demonstration test
    Conduct R&D on improvements in architecture, the durability of materials, and seawater agriculture after the demonstration test.
  • 2024

    Start of sea trials and mass production model development
    Mass production prototype demonstration test, durability test, mass production, maintenance efficiency, price, verification of marine environment improvement, etc.
  • 2025

    Mass production model test marketing
    Conduct test marketing of experimental introduction of mass-produced models to increase the number of introduction cases.
  • 2026

    Green Ocean Market Launch
    Start full-scale sales of Green Ocean. Take the initiative in launching the product in overseas regions with severe environmental issues.